Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. (The highest value being again 66.1%). Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. TIP: In their . It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. 6. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Demographics (84) Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Click here, for more. Arapahoe County. So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. But both are worth watching. 3. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. 9. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa Obama won them, Trump won them, Biden lost them. So, where are the bellwether counties? Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. 12. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. Really stop reading. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. University of Denver, 2. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. And this is the state with the highest share of whites with college degrees in the country. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. Her running mate Tim Kaine the former Richmond mayor and Virginia governor could make a difference here, Latest voter registration totals: 230,236No party registration, Loudoun County flipped from red to blue in 2008, when Barack Obama won it and held it in 2012. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. 03:30. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Outstanding. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Outstanding. Still, the state's worth watching. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. 7. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Want to dive deeper? Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Suburban Richmonds Henrico County was once a reliable GOP stronghold it went twice for George W. Bush and backed Bob McDonnell in his 2009 gubernatorial win. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. These are the bellwether counties. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. 4. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) These counties could play an . Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Ron Elving . BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Read about our approach to external linking. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Just how big is it? One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Have you looked at the results of these counties? We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? Thank you for supporting our journalism. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. Trump won 18 of the 19. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . Here's why. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. What science tells us about the afterlife. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin.

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