But you cant winem all, Beggs, 80, told The Epoch Times. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. And its never going to come back.. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. He was concerned about the situation in Ukraine. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. . The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. Tammy said that with the lakefront area being a popular spot for fishing and tourists, the price of gas always has been higher than average. I am under that impression. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. I kind of keep in my bubble. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area, in particular, appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughters house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. I would never vote any other way. That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). I find that hard to believe. Here's why. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Its too big. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. Logistically, its a disaster. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Results from 28 counties have still not been finalized, per Brookings Institution. Its crazy. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. This includes personalizing content and advertising. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. Hes pleased with the last twoBrett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrettby Trump. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. I dont listen to the news. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. I think all politicians are crooks. Weve never done that before.. Two states have announced recounts. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. . Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. He isnt so sure about Biden. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. John Hawker, a 74-year-old Port Clinton resident who grew up in Toledo, was sitting at the end of the bar and also weighed in on the state of affairs. Its just not that great, Paul said. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Theres significant variability among them though. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one.

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